Expert-Grup: despite recent economic stabilisation, conditions could worsen in the second half of the year

Adrian Lupușor identifies the main challenge as a triad of deficits: budget, trade and current account. Expansionary policies adopted in the electoral context are already widening the budget deficit. After the elections, this could mean higher taxes, spending cuts or more government borrowing from banks, slowing growth in the second half of 2019 and in 2020. Political instability adds risk by suspending investment projects and delaying reforms.

Alexandru Fală argues that electoral spending, the trade deficit, falling remittances and a poor 2018 harvest weakened the leu, and inflation could reach 8-9% by the end of 2019. Vadim Gumene says fuel price rises stem mainly from the new pricing methodology, which allows a return on investment of up to 10%. He adds that the companies' initial hesitation could point to political interference.