Expert-Grup launches its ranking of the most important events of 2019 and the main challenges for the coming year

Adrian Lupușor, Expert-Grup’s executive director, said GDP growth in 2019 will most likely not exceed 5%. Potential GDP growth is stabilising at around 4%, which he called worrying, since capital and labour, the drivers of growth, are performing weakly.

The 2019 events include the 2020 state budget, looser monetary policy, the sale of the majority stake in B.C. Moldindconbank, rising household indebtedness, microloan regulation, companies’ reluctance to invest and modest export growth. The 2020 challenges include financing the planned deficit of 3.3% of GDP, low capacity to implement externally funded public investment, gas supply, the legal and decision-making independence of the National Bank of Moldova, bank fraud investigations and worrying labour market trends. The experts see a small risk of a gas crisis, but note that untested alternative solutions carry risks.