Expert-Grup

Launch of the State of the Country Report 2024: Trends, Forecasts and Vulnerabilities of the National Economy

Friday, 13 December 20243712 views
Launch of the State of the Country Report 2024: Trends, Forecasts and Vulnerabilities of the National Economy

Automatically translated summary. The full article is available in Romanian.

The Independent Think Tank “Expert-Grup”, together with the Friedrich Ebert Foundation Moldova, launched the State of the Country Report 2024 on 12 December in Chișinău, at the 12th annual international MACRO 2024 Conference. The report analyses Moldova's economic trends, forecasts and vulnerabilities, and offers policy recommendations.

The authors say the economic recovery expected for 2023 was postponed to 2024: GDP grew by only 0.7% in 2023, after -4.6% in 2022. For 2024 they expect growth of about 2%, driven by consumption and public investment. Main risks are weaker harvests (10-15% lower) and the external environment. Industry fell to a historic low of 11.2% of GDP, while services remain the main growth source. Poverty is the most pressing social problem.

The report argues Moldova must move from competitiveness based on low labour costs to one based on efficiency. More than MDL 4 billion went to SME and agriculture programmes in 2022-2023 with limited impact because of poor coordination. Recommendations include a register integrating support programmes, guarantee instruments for exporters, the “scarcity principle” in farm subsidies, and greater budget transparency and dialogue.

View the original article in Romanian