Analysis of the Demographic Dividends of the Republic of Moldova

The analysis builds on the economic life cycle, in which children and the elderly are net consumers and working-age adults are net producers. It finds that Moldova has already missed the first demographic dividend: the number of producers will fall faster than that of consumers over the next two decades, although the negative trend will ease after 2027.

The second dividend, based on accumulated wealth that finances older people’s consumption, will create opportunities. Its positive effects should outweigh the loss of the first, giving a net positive result for economic growth. The study recommends enabling older people who wish and are able to keep working, diversifying savings investment options, and pursuing reforms that raise the return on capital. It was prepared under a UNFPA project with Austrian Development Agency support and the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection; Valeriu Prohnițchi calculated the National Transfer Accounts.