COVID-19: How to Save the National Economy and Prepare the Ground for a Post-Crisis Recovery

The paper warns that the pandemic brings deep uncertainty and could hit harder than the 2009 crisis, with GDP possibly falling by about 10% in 2020 alone. Production, supply chains, demand and private investment are all at risk, while borrowers, tenants, returning emigrants and informal workers lack social protection.

The authors welcome the government's measures, including subsidies for businesses forced to halt activity and wider social assistance under the bill approved on 1 April 2020, but call for firmer, more comprehensive action covering both the emergency and the period after restrictions end. They propose an integrated, longer-term package with three goals: direct financial support for households and firms to keep the economy on “artificial respiration”; active support for domestic producers; and transparent communication with the public and businesses. The study was supported by the Soros-Moldova Foundation.