Expert-Grup

DCFTA after 5 Years of Implementation: Estimated Impact and Conclusions for the Next 5 Years

Integrare europeanăThursday, 4 July 201913658 views

Automatically translated summary. The full text is available in Romanian.

Five years after the DCFTA between Moldova and the European Union began to be implemented, this analysis assesses its estimated impact on Moldovan trade for 2015-2018 compared with 2011-2014. It finds a net positive effect on exports, while warning of structural weaknesses and proposing priorities for the next five years.

Total exports grew by USD 1.5 billion (34%), twice as fast as on other markets, offsetting losses on the CIS market. About 40% of the growth, roughly USD 600 million, is attributable solely to the DCFTA. Agri-food exports gained more (net impact USD 475 million) than industrial ones (USD 128 million). Import coverage by exports in trade with the EU rose from 47% to 66%, easing pressure on the trade balance and the current account.

Risks remain. Over half of industrial exports go to Romania, and over half of agri-food exports to three markets. About three quarters of agri-food exports are primary products, all industrial exports are low tech, and over half are re-exports. The authors recommend attracting high value-added investment, modernising quality infrastructure, offering technical and financial support to small and medium-sized companies, and informing them better about EU requirements.

View the original in Romanian