Inflation in the Republic of Moldova: Causes, Vulnerable Groups and Policy Recommendations
Automatically translated summary. The full text is available in Romanian.
An analytical note by the Independent Think Tank “Expert-Grup”, prepared with the Institute for Strategic Initiatives (IPIS) and supported by Soros Foundation Moldova, examines the recent surge in inflation in the Republic of Moldova, its impact on poverty and possible policy responses to cushion the effects of price shocks.
After years of moderate price growth, 2021 marked a turning point: global economic recovery, logistics disruptions and a harsh winter pushed up energy, food and construction material prices, and Russia’s war against Ukraine intensified the trend. In Moldova, annual inflation exceeded 10% in November 2021 and reached 27.1% year-on-year in April 2022. The National Bank of Moldova forecasts average annual inflation of 27.3% for 2022, close to the 31% recorded in 2000.
Moldova has long had higher inflation than its European peers. Between 2010 and 2021 prices rose by 5.6% a year on average, against 1.4% in the EU. In January-April 2022, prices rose 6.9% in the EU and by over 10% in several countries, such as Lithuania (14.6%) and Estonia (14.1%), but by 21.1% in Moldova.
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