Moldova Economic Thermometer – August 2026 Update: The Strongest Growth Signal in a Year

June stood at +0.23 standard deviations above the historical average, while the second-quarter average rose to +0.16σ, almost triple the first-quarter level. Growth was driven by industrial output (+10.6% year on year), retail trade (+10.2% in real terms), exports (+18.7%) and real money supply (+6.7%). Financial pressures, namely the non-performing loan ratio and the risk premium on the government securities market, remain relevant but have eased.

Official second-quarter GDP data will be published in mid-September. The thermometer anticipates a visible acceleration from the modest first-quarter pace of +0.4%, and moderate growth this year, around the potential of about 3%. The indicator aggregates six series from the National Bureau of Statistics and the National Bank of Moldova with equal weights, following OECD, Conference Board, European Commission and Bank of Italy practice, and leads official GDP statistics by 1–2 quarters.