Propagation of the Economic Effects of the Regional Security Crisis on the Republic of Moldova: A Preliminary Assessment
Automatically translated summary. The full text is available in Romanian.
The Independent Think Tank “Expert-Grup” has produced a preliminary assessment of how the economic shock from the war in Ukraine, which began in February 2022, is spreading to the Republic of Moldova, one of the most affected neighbouring countries. It examines the trade, financial and fiscal channels of contagion.
Before the war, Expert-Grup’s January 2022 forecast projected GDP growth of 3% in real terms and average consumer price inflation of 14%. Now even this modest growth looks unattainable, and inflation will exceed the forecast. Trade with Russia, Ukraine and Belarus has fallen because of damaged infrastructure, blocked ports, payment difficulties, currency depreciation, export restrictions and higher transaction costs.
Exports to the three countries totalled USD 437 million in 2021, about 15% of total goods exports in 2018-2020. Yet some sectors depend heavily on them: 98% of fresh apples, pears and quinces (USD 59 million) go to Russia, as do 50% of knitted clothing exports and 84% of liquid pumps. Indirect losses are also likely, notably in fertilisers: 83% of nitrogen fertiliser imports came from Russia, and less fertiliser would reduce harvests and drought resistance.
Recent publications from Economic growth policies
See all
The socio-economic encyclopedia of Moldova, first edition
Moldova must launch a broad fiscal consolidation reform to bring the budget deficit within manageable limits
Monitoring Report on the Implementation of the State Property Management Strategy for State-Owned Enterprises and Companies with Fully or Majority State Capital
