The Relevance of the Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) Developed by Expert-Grup for Defining Fluctuations in the Moldovan Economy
Automatically translated summary. The full text is available in Romanian.
In April 2012, Independent Think Tank “Expert-Grup” launched the Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) of the Moldovan economy, an analytical tool for studying economic fluctuations and anticipating possible negative shocks. A new paper supplements the initial analysis and assesses how relevant the indicator is for defining the economy's fluctuations.
The paper extends the period originally used to calculate the CLI and tests the indicator's leading properties in relation to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It also applies spectral analysis to establish how relevant the CLI is for defining fluctuations in the Moldovan economy.
In addition, the analysis highlights the latest economic trends revealed by the indicator. It presents the main risks to which the economy of the Republic of Moldova is currently exposed, in the context of economic difficulties in the Euro area and beyond.
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