The Impact of Higher Prices for Natural Gas Imported from the Russian Federation

Moldova is a classic net energy importer: local production covers less than a quarter of gross consumption, and natural gas is imported entirely from Russia. The note compares the economy under the shock with a Business-as-Usual baseline, rather than comparing the periods before and after the shock.

It asks which sectors are hit hardest, how GDP changes, how household final consumption is affected and which territories are most exposed. It also examines the effects on public budget revenues, on competitiveness and international trade, and the systemic impact of the Government's compensatory policies. Over 2010-2020 the economy grew by 2.9% a year on average, faster than energy consumption (0.9%). This decoupling points to substantial energy efficiency gains, which should be consolidated to limit the environmental footprint and reduce systemic vulnerability.