Implications of Moldova's Possible Accession to the Eurasian Economic Union for EU Tariff Measures on Moldovan Exports
Automatically translated summary. The full text is available in Romanian.
This analysis examines how Moldova's possible accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) would affect its exports to the European Union. Responding to speculation about the benefits of joining, it focuses solely on EU import customs duties, leaving aside the wider set of tariff and non-tariff measures.
The EU takes about 70% of Moldovan exports, while the five EEU members account for only 7% (USD 245 million). Joining the EEU would mean adopting its common customs tariff and abandoning existing free trade agreements, including the DCFTA with the EU. Moldovan goods would then face EU most-favoured-nation duties averaging 10.8% for agricultural and 4.1% for non-agricultural products, with maximum rates reaching 152%. Wine, fruit, processed agricultural goods and textiles would be hit hardest.
The EEU market (180 million people versus 450 million in the EU) is smaller, less diversified and weaker in purchasing power, so it cannot replace EU demand. The EU supplies about 86% of direct equity investment, while the EEU stock is close to zero. Moldova could also lose EU structural and cohesion funds, slowing growth and modernisation.
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