The Pact of Malign Influence: Tiraspol and Comrat Mobilised to Keep Moldova in Russia's Sphere of Influence

The European Commission's Peter Stano sees broader coordination of pro-Kremlin forces, including actors in Transnistria and Gagauzia, and expects their efforts to intensify. The Institute for the Study of War argues that the accusations fit the Kremlin's rhetoric justifying aggression, likening calls for Russian "defence" to the Minsk Agreements narrative.

On 28 February 2024 Krasnoselski convened a "Congress of Transnistrian Deputies" seeking Russian diplomatic support. On 20 March Gagauz governor Evghenia Guţul asked Russia for "protection" for Gagauz people. Moldova's Intelligence and Security Service suspects Comrat of planning a similar congress. Tiraspol analyst Andrei Safonov calls the Institute's assessment "illogical". Moldova's Reintegration Policies Bureau and the Intelligence and Security Service see no preparations for aggression, only attempts to cause panic.