The Role of the European Union in Boosting Exports from the Republic of Moldova
Automatically translated summary. The full text is available in Romanian.
This analysis uses econometric estimates to identify the determinants of the Republic of Moldova's export performance, focusing on the contribution of the EU economy to total export growth. It concludes that Moldova's shift to an export-based growth model depends essentially on its level of integration into the EU market.
The EU is Moldova's main economic partner and export destination. Between 2000 and 2018, exports rose from USD 165.3 million to USD 1.86 billion. The EU share hovered around 50% in 2006-2014, then climbed from 61.9% in 2015 to 68.8% in 2018 after the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area was created. Exports to the CIS fell from 2013, reaching only 44.8% of the 2012 level in 2018, owing to Russian restrictions and recessions in Ukraine and Belarus.
EU demand acted as a stabiliser against negative shocks from other markets, except in 2009, when all markets contributed negatively. More than half of export performance depends on EU economic dynamics, which also stimulate investment, wages and employment. The study therefore stresses the strategic importance of fully implementing the EU Association Agreement.
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