Expert-Grup

Theory of Change for Demographic Resilience: Adaptation, Mitigation, Adjustment

AlteleProtecția socialăThursday, 8 September 20225987 views

Automatically translated summary. The full text is available in Romanian.

The Theory of Change for Demographic Resilience analyses Moldova's demographic situation and sets policy priorities for turning demographic change into a development opportunity. It was prepared by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), in partnership with the Independent Think Tank “Expert-Grup” and the Centre for Demographic Research, at the request of the Ministry of Labour and Social Protection.

Moldova faces a shrinking and ageing population, youth emigration, low fertility and low life expectancy. By 2040 the population could fall to 1,754.6 thousand (down 34.5%) in the pessimistic scenario, 1,924.9 thousand (28.2%) in the baseline and 2,094.5 thousand (21.5%) in the optimistic one. The median age would rise from 37.3 to 47.3 years, and the share of people aged 60 and over from 21.3% to 32.3%. In 2020 life expectancy was 73.9 years for women and 65.9 for men, against EU averages of 84.0 and 78.5.

The IMF estimates an average annual GDP impact of -1.8 percentage points in 2020-2050, with ageing-related public spending rising by about 10% of GDP by 2050. The document calls for a new demographic policy paradigm built on mitigation, adaptation and adjustment policies, the last aimed at better demographic statistics and their use in sectoral policy, medium-term budgeting and infrastructure investment.

View the original in Romanian