US Tariffs: A Resilience Test for Moldovan Exports
Automatically translated summary. The full text is available in Romanian.
In April 2025 the US administration announced a 31% reciprocal tariff on Moldova, then suspended it and applied 10%. In July, the White House set a uniform 25% tariff, effective 1 August 2025. An economic commentary assesses its impact on Moldovan exports and the justification for the measure.
Moldovan exports to the US were already weakening in 2025, owing to volatile international demand and global supply chain disruptions. The US justifies the tariffs by a bilateral trade imbalance, but the commentary argues this rests on a simplistic reading of statistics.
Exports are recorded by the country of last known destination, while imports are recorded by country of origin. Moldovan goods made under tolling arrangements, such as textiles, electronic components and leather products, are first shipped to the EU and then to the US, so Moldovan direct exports look smaller. Conversely, in 2024 Moldova reported imports from the US of USD 135 million, while the US reported exports to Moldova of only USD 54 million, because American goods arrive via European distribution hubs. The authors conclude that the real trade balance is far more even than it appears, that the tariffs are not economically justified, and that they should be reassessed on rigorous technical and economic grounds.
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