Moldova's Economic Thermometer: the economy moves from growth to stagnation
Automatically translated summary. The full article is available in Romanian.
Independent Think Tank “Expert-Grup” reports that its Leading Economic Indicator fell in August 2026 to −0.17 standard deviations, the first negative reading since February. The three-month moving average dropped to +0.05σ, so Moldova's economy has shifted from growth to stagnation, with GDP growth in the third quarter expected near zero.
The cooling was driven by the external sector and industry. Goods exports totalled EUR 268.5 million, down 6.1% year on year and 16.2% on July, while industrial output fell 0.7%, its first annual contraction since February. Consumption remains the only engine: retail trade rose 8.7% in real terms and real M3 by 5.4%. The non-performing loan ratio rose to 5.51%.
In September, annual inflation climbed to 8.6% from 6.96%, mainly because of a 40.8% natural gas tariff increase. Real M3 growth slowed to +2.5%, and the National Bank of Moldova raised its base rate by 1.5 p.p. to 9.0%. The indicator averaged −0.03σ in July–August versus +0.13σ in the second quarter. Given its past overestimation of growth, third-quarter GDP growth should be close to zero. Growth in 2026 is seen at no more than 1%, against a potential of about 3%.
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