Increasing the economic resilience of Armenia, Georgia, and Moldova

Context:

The project takes place against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and Russia’s increasingly assertive regional policy—factors that will continue to impact the economic situation of the three countries under analysis through various channels: trade in goods and services, migrant worker remittances, financial flows, energy dependence (all three countries are net energy importers), perceptions of security risk, and so on. Even if the war in Ukraine were to end during the project's lifespan, the problems it has created would not vanish immediately. The entire post-Soviet region will require economic stabilization, reconstruction, and the restoration of economic ties with the rest of the world. Consequently, the project’s agenda will remain relevant even under the most optimistic scenario (an end to the war).

At the same time, the high level of political and economic uncertainty and unpredictability in the region and the countries under analysis necessitates a flexible approach to the project’s agenda, analytical framework, methodology, and operational modalities—specifically, the ability to adapt them whenever new challenges and circumstances arise.

CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research, an international think tank based in Warsaw, is positioned as the lead actor in this project, leveraging its network of partners and top-tier experts across the post-Soviet region. Since its inception in the autumn of 1991, CASE has been consistently engaged in public policy research, policy advice, and capacity building across all post-communist countries, including those targeted by the proposed project. A partnership with three entities—one from each country: the consulting firm Modex in Yerevan, the Economic Policy Research Center in Tbilisi, and the independent analytical center Expert-Grup in Chișinău—will ensure country-specific expertise and the ability to respond flexibly to the economic and political changes in each state.