Expert-Grup: Moldova's economy moves from growth to stagnation, and growth of no more than 1% is taking shape for 2026

Expert-Grup in October 2026: the organisation's activity and what comes next in November

Adrian Lupușor, Executive Director, Expert-Grup, presented the organisation's activity in October and its main achievements. These include the launch of the Information Platform dedicated to municipal bonds, which can be accessed here. Also, the publication of a commentary on the Report of the Commission of Inquiry for examining the activity of certain state-owned enterprises, presented to Parliament on 5 October 2026, available here.

The Moldova Economic Thermometer: the economy moves from growth to stagnation

According to the October update of the Moldova Economic Thermometer, in August the economy moved from the growth phase to stagnation, and for the third quarter the indicator suggests GDP growth close to zero. For the whole of 2026, growth of no more than 1% is taking shape.

“In August, the economy moved from growth to stagnation, because industry and exports began to give way. Only one engine remains, consumption, which however relies more and more on imports and which will be severely tested this winter by more expensive gas and heating. Therefore, we maintain the forecast that 2026 will end with economic growth of no more than 1%, three times below the economy's potential, and the risk of stagflation, with a stalled economy and rising prices, is becoming ever more real.” , said Adrian Lupușor, Executive Director, Expert-Grup.

The interactive dashboard of the Economic Thermometer, with the economy's speedometer, the monthly updated charts and the breakdown by components, can be consulted here. 

The report of the parliamentary Commission of Inquiry on state-owned enterprises

Vitalie Rapcea, Programme Director “Economic and Environmental Infrastructure”, Expert-Grup, commented on the findings of the report of the parliamentary Commission of Inquiry on state-owned enterprises. “The creation of the Commission of Inquiry sent an encouraging signal to society: the state and politicians are, at last, determined to reform and clean up the management and privatisation of public property. The commission's report provides a true X-ray of the sector and puts on Parliament's table all the arguments to act. That is precisely why we are deeply concerned that Parliament has not yet approved this report. We fully support the findings of the Commission of Inquiry and urge Parliament to reconfirm its intention to continue the clean-up and reforms in this sector.”, the expert stressed.

The opening of EU accession negotiations on the clusters “Internal Market” and “Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth”

Stas Madan, Programme Director “Business Environment and SMEs”, Expert-Grup, commented on the opening of EU accession negotiations on the two clusters.  “The opening of negotiations for Cluster 2, “Internal Market”, and Cluster 3, “Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth”, is probably the most important economic milestone of the accession process so far. While the first cluster concerns the fundamentals of the rule of law, these 2 clusters cover several activities that directly affect both firms and people, through aspects concerning fair competition, taxation, the labour market, consumer protection, etc. For Moldova, the EU is already the main economic partner, and some benefits of integration into the Single Market, such as Roaming like at home, SEPA or the common transit regime, are already being felt. At the same time, adopting all the European rules of the game also entails certain compliance and adaptation costs, and the Republic of Moldova has requested transition periods for certain actions, that is, to comply within certain periods after the moment of accession. It is very important that the adoption of European norms be sufficiently adapted to the national context, and for this it is critical that the authorities invest in public impact studies, in close dialogue with the business community and civil society, and also in strong institutions.”

The conclusions of the study “The Impact of Municipal Bond Issues in the Republic of Moldova”

Dumitru Pîntea, Associate Expert, Expert-Grup, presented the extent to which the issues have boosted the capital market, what resources were mobilised for capital investments and at what cost, and what the impact of each issue was at the level of the issuing local public authority. In five years, municipal bonds have moved from a pilot project to an instrument used repeatedly by local public authorities, although still dependent on external technical assistance: nine issues, seven issuers and MDL 112 million, all fully subscribed. The expert also highlighted the main findings and recommendations of the study, which analyses the measures needed for municipal bonds to become a sustainable financing instrument. The full study can be accessed here.

The recording of the conference is available below:

The next edition of the conference “The Economic Reality Analysed by Expert-Grup” will take place on Tuesday, 24 November 2026, at 10:00. Contact person: Inga Agachi, Communications Manager, Expert-Grup, inga@expert-grup.org